The early 2030s will not be a singularity, because its events do not yet correspond to a sufficiently profound expansion of our intelligence.Non-biological intelligence will be better than our own brains because machines have some added advantages, such as accuracy and ability to run at peak capacity.In the mid 2040s the total computing capacity we produce each year will be a billion times more powerful than all of human intelligence today. Thus in the early 2030s we will produce new computing power roughly equivalent to the capacity of all living biological human intelligence, every year.The sum of all living biological human intelligence operates at around 10²⁶ computations per second (p113).Therefore in the early 2030s we will be producing about 10²⁶-10²⁹ computations per second of nonbiological computation per year, and by the mid 2040s, we will produce 10²⁶ cps with $1000 (p120).

Today we spend more than $10¹¹/year on computation, which will conservatively rise to $10¹²/year by 2030 (p119-20).

In the early 2030s one thousand dollars’ worth of computation will buy about 10¹⁷ computations per second (p119).The following is our reconstruction of an argument Kurzweil makes in the book, for expecting the Singularity in 2045. Calculation of the date of the singularityĭetails Calculation of the date of the singularity.

Kurzweil the singularity is near